MLB best bets: Expert picks for Saturday 4/13

Reds vs. White Sox

Saturday, April 13, 2:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Reds ML (DraftKings)

By Sean Paul

I’m looking to fade the White Sox as much as possible with Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Yoán Moncada out. The White Sox already had one of the worst lineups in baseball and now are without arguably their three best hitters.

It’s the first game back for Nick Lodolo, who struggled in seven starts last year before going down with an injury. Lodolo will likely have a limited workload, so expect a steady diet of Reds relievers.

The Reds' lineup ranks in the middle of the pack with a 97 wRC+. Elly De La Cruz found his stride after a rough first five games, batting .417 with a 1.500 OPS in the past seven games. When the star-studded shortstop makes contact, it’s going far. We’ll see how he fares against Garrett Crochet.

It’s all about getting to the White Sox bullpen and forcing Crochet out of the game early. The former first-round pick is pitching to a 2.00 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 18 innings. Just keep the game close and attack the bullpen. That’s the formula for the Reds.

Pick: Reds ML (-125; Bet to -150)

Reds vs. White Sox

Saturday, April 13, 2:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 8.5 (DraftKings)

By D.J. James

Garrett Crochet has looked incredible for the White Sox and might be one of the only bright spots for Chicago. Crochet's opponent Saturday will be Nick Lodolo and the Reds.

Lodolo has yet to make an appearance in 2024, but at full health in 2022, he kept his ERA under 3.70 and xERA under 4.00. His strikeout stuff has always been top of the line, so all he needs to do is limit walks. The White Sox have a 31% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate off lefties this year in 87 plate appearances. Plus, Yoán Moncada, Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert Jr. are all injured. That is basically the entirety of the power from the White Sox.

Crochet is clearly facing the tougher lineup, but the Reds are only a touch above 100 wRC+. They have a walk rate over 10%, but Crochet has 21 strikeouts and one walk; his average exit velocity allowed is below average as well.

The White Sox have enough arms to maintain a lead after Crochet logs at least five or six innings. They have four arms below a 4.00 xFIP, and Michael Kopech looks electric in high-leverage relief situations. The Reds have a few solid arms, too.

Neither of these teams will hit the cover off the ball with these pitchers. The Reds could get a few off the Chicago bullpen, but otherwise, runs could be at a premium. Take this Under to 7.5.

Pick: Under 8.5 (Bet to 7.5)

Pirates vs. Phillies

Saturday, April 13, 4:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Phillies ML (Bet365)

By William Boor

Spencer Turnbull is a starter I want to back early in the season and Marco Gonzales is a lefty I want to fade. So, the fact that they’re facing each other makes this an easy game to handicap.

Through two starts, Gonzales has fared well. The 32-year-old has pitched to a 2.45 ERA with six strikeouts and has yielded just three runs over 11 innings against the Nationals and Orioles.

On the surface, that’s great. However, his xERA sits at 6.01 and his xBA is .325, which ranks in the bottom 9% of the league. Those are numbers you never want to see from a starting pitcher, but they’re especially concerning prior to a start in a hitter-friendly environment, such as Citizens Bank Park.

Meanwhile, Turnbull has yet to allow an earned run this season. The 31-year-old right hander has fanned 13 over 11 innings, giving up just five hits and issuing one walk against the Reds and Cardinals.

Obviously he’ll give up an earned run at some point, but the metrics show the strong early-season performance is just that – a strong performance and not a product of extreme luck.

Turnbull has pitched to a 2.27 xERA (83rd percentile) and has also posted solid marks in ground-ball percentage (78th percentile), barrel percentage (78th percentile), walk rate (92nd percentile) and strikeout rate (84th percentile).

The Phillies have the starting pitching edge in this game and an offense that’s averaging roughly a run per game better at home than on the road.

Philadelphia’s bullpen gives me pause, but I trust Turnbull to spin another gem and the likes of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm to put up some crooked numbers against Gonzales.

Pick: Phillies ML (-150)