MLB Best Bets: Thursday picks for Mets vs. Braves, Brewers vs. Reds and more

Mets vs. Braves

Thursday, April 11, 12:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 9.5 (-115) | Play to 9 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Allan Winans will take the bump for the Atlanta Braves in a matinee against José Quintana and the New York Mets.

Quintana has had some favorable outcomes, despite some discouraging peripherals, while Winans is yet to throw for the Braves this season, but had a cup of coffee in the majors last year and posted a 5.29 ERA over 32 1/3 innings.

That said, the Braves haven't hit lefties well in limited plate appearances this year, and New York has struggled off of righties, so runs could be at a premium.

Quintana has been a reliable starting pitcher, outside of his stint with the Chicago Cubs. This year, he has given up a fair amount of hard contact in two starts against the Reds and Brewers. He's never been much of a strikeout guy, but a 12.8% walk rate won't cut it. However, that number will surely regress, as his career walk rate has hovered around 7%. Additionally, he can typically limit hard contact. In 2023, he ranked in the 88th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate and the 87th percentile in Barrel Rate.

The Mets haven't hit righties well. Over 322 plate appearances, they have a 74 wRC+ with a .586 OPS. Last season, they ranked a tick above average with a 103 wRC+ off of righties, but only four of their active hitters held a xwOBA over .33o off of righties.

Neither of these starting pitchers will rack up strikeouts, but both can limit hard contact and induce grounders. Quintana will look like himself again soon, and Winans has a nice matchup against a lineup that mostly struggles with lefties. As a result, the under should be playable to 9.

Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) | Play to 9

Orioles vs. Red Sox

Thursday, April 11, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 9 (-115) | Play to 8 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Both the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles have fared well to start the season. Garrett Whitlock has slotted well into Boston's rotation and Grayson Rodriguez, after struggling a bit last year, has thrown well for Baltimore.

Whitlock has done a good job of limiting hard contact over his first two starts and has given up just one run. His walk rate is over 10% for the time being, but that should level out in his coming starts.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez, after debuting as a highly touted prospect, is finally looking like the pitcher Orioles fans expected. In two starts, he has logged 12 1/3 innings and racked up 16 strikeouts. Hard velocity sometimes brings hard contact, but if Rodriguez can keep the ball on the ground, he'll be fine.

Baltimore is crushing righties this season, but behind Whitlock, Boston's relievers have done a great job. Kenley Jansen looks a tad shaky at closer, but Chris Martin, Josh Winckowski and Justin Slaten have done well.

When it comes to the Orioles, Craig Kimbrel, Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe are rock solid in relief.

The Red Sox have done a decent job offensively, but Rodriguez and the O’s should hold them in check. The same goes for Whitlock and Boston’s relievers.

Take the under in this contest and play it to eight.

Pick: Under 9 (-115) | Play to 8

Brewers vs. Reds

Thursday, April 11, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Brewers F5 -0.5 (+112) | Play to +105 (FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

I want to target the F5 market in this Central Division matchup because of the clear pitching advantage that Milwaukee possesses with right-hander Freddy Peralta on the mound. Taking over the ace role for this rotation, Peralta is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP through his first two starts of the season.

His metrics suggest that regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 77th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Whiff% and K%. Additionally, Peralta has dominated Cincinnati recently, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.46 ERA over the past four meetings.

Meanwhile, right-hander Nick Martinez takes the mound for the Reds, and things haven't gone nearly as well for him. Through two starts this year, he possesses a 7.20 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.

His analytics are just as poor as he ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, K%, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. The pitching advantage clearly goes to the Brewers, but they also rank higher than Cincinnati in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Pick: Brewers F5 -0.5 (+112) | Play to +105

Brewers vs. Reds

Thursday, April 11, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Reds Moneyline (+105, Bet365)

By Kenny Ducey

Freddy Peralta is the topic of much discussion as he's posted stunning strikeout numbers through two starts and has helped the Brewers to wins in each. However, we can’t forget who Peralta truly is, and Thursday’s game against the Reds should prove to be a tricky spot for him.

Peralta, first and foremost, has had the benefit of facing two truly bad offenses — the Mets and Mariners — to start his 2024 campaign. He’s also pitched in two spacious parks – at home and at Citi Field – but will now step into one of the hardest environments to limit home runs.

The right-hander has already allowed three barrels this season (24 balls in play), continuing on with a trend we saw begin last season, when he allowed a whopping 26 home runs. The Reds are strikeout machines at the moment, which is worrying here, but they also rank third in home run-to-fly ball ratio and should manage to slow Peralta’s fast start this season with a few longballs.

Additionally, Peralta has done well to limit walks over his first two starts, but they’ve historically been a huge issue for him, so I think there could be some traffic on the basepaths when those balls leave the park.

On the flip side, Milwaukee has thrived off of free passes and home runs, something that shouldn’t come easy against Nick Martinez, who has displayed solid control over his career. Most importantly, he’s been a ground-ball pitcher for his entire career, despite what we've seen through two starts. He was brought in to generate ground balls and I think he'll do just that behind a solid offensive showing on Thursday.

Pick: Reds Moneyline (+105)